Potential regional consequences, spillover effects of any military intervention in Niger by ECOWAS

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By: Tabi Joda
Potential spillover effects on the region if there is any military intervention in Niger could include:
Escalation of violence: In an event of any Military intervention there will be escalation of violence in the region, as Mali, Burkina Faso and Algeria have expressed firm stance against such and there’s a strong willingness by same to bring in their troops to the defence of Niger.
Coupled with that, there is possible mass recruitment of already angered unemployed and dissatisfied youth across the region (Cote D’Ivoire, Togo, Bénin, Gambia, Mali, Guinée Conakry, Mauritania, Cameroon, Chad, Central African Republic, Nigeria and Niger itself) who are ready to take up arms to retaliate against the intervention forces and you can just imagine the consequences – there are currently over 100 million unemployed youth in West Africa alone.
Imagine arms in their hands. This can further destabilize the region and lead to more violence.
Refugee crisis: Be that as it may, any Military intervention would result in an influx of refugees from Niger into neighboring countries. This can put additional strain on already fragile economies and social services in the countries.
Cross-border terrorism: Any military intervention will be an opportunity for armed groups operating in the region to exploit the intervention to advance across borders and gain control of current demographic opportunity of youths. This would lead to an obvious increase in cross-border terrorism, as these groups continue their activities from new bases.
Spread of armed conflict: Military intervention could potentially spread the armed conflict beyond Niger borders, as armed groups may launch retaliatory attacks in neighboring countries.
This can lead to a regional conflict, involving multiple countries in the region. We are aware of the NATO mistake in Libya which is one of the sole source of proliferation of arms and weapons in the region now mostly light arms. Any military intervention would be a call for repeat of the mistake in Libya.
Humanitarian crisis: Military intervention can worsen the existing humanitarian crisis in the region. The Sahel currently has over 2 million people displaced and any attempt toward military intervention in Niger is tantamount to a humanitarian disaster. As violence and displacement increase, access to essential services, such as healthcare and clean water, may become even more limited, leading to a worsening of the humanitarian situation for affected populations.
It should be clear to all that ECOWAS’ legitimacy is increasingly questionable. This is due to the way and manner it has handled past events in the region. Take for instance, when Alpha Konde changed the constitution of Guinea against popular wishes to extend his mandate, ECOWAS didn’t challenge that. That was in itself a civilian coup. Since Alpha Konde was a french stooge, ECOWAS betrayed the citizens of Guinea in favour of French interest.
When Allassane Ouattara of Cote D’Ivoire abused power and changed the constitution against popular wishes, and extended his mandate, ECOWAS didn’t challenge that. They instead congratulated him and flew into Cote D’Ivoire in their numbers to his inauguration including Mohammadu Buhari then president of Nigeria. In all this, France was the external masterminder of this wicked gestures.
When Eyadéma abused power and changed the constitution to gain an extended mandate, people revolted, instead they were massively arrested, maimed, jailed and many killed with impunity, yet ECOWAS didn’t challenge or demand military intervention in this scenario. At this moment I’m writing many opposition leaders, youth and activists are still in jail. The French get what they wanted to keep a puppet Government in place and ECOWAS stood indifferent.
When Macky Sall attempted to change the Senegalese constitution, youth revolted, and challenged the status quo, it took the power of the voices of youth in Senegal to stop him. After backing down, he has arrested opposition leaders and activists, yet ECOWAS is indifferent.
It’s true that you can fool some people some time, but, you can’t fool all the people all the time.
It was similar events of abuse of power and control of the French that led military takeover in Mali and Burkina Faso. Now it’s moved to Niger. The story of Niger is a long one. Until you understand the history of the crises you wouldn’t be just to judge.
Until you understand the suffering of the people in Niger you’ll know why the French must leave that country.
Until you understand the wicked politics of France and how it manipulates puppets like Bazoum, Allassane Ouattara, Eyadéma, Paul Biya, Bongo etc before you’ll know why it’s important to stand with #Niger #STANDFORNIGER  #StandforNoMilitaryIntervention NO MORE WARS IN THIS REGION
Tabi Joda
Founder GreenAid, Abuja Nigeria, tabijoda@gmail.com

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